美股暴跌的根源
2019-03-18 17:34 美股 美股暴跌

美股暴跌的根源BBIN游戏官网

文 | 清和    来源|智本社(ID:zhibenshe0-1)

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BBIN游戏官网LINGLILVHEFULILVSHISHIYUEJIU,ZHAIWUGUIMOYUEDA,JINGJIYUECUIRUO。TONGSHI,LILVZHENGCEJIUHUIBEIZHAIWUFENGXIANBANGJIA,HUOBIZHENGCEHUIXIANRUQIANLVJIQIONGDEJINGDI。

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BENWENCONGHUOBIZHENGCE、HUOBIZHIDUHEHUOBILILUNSANGEJIAODUTANSUOJINRONGWEIJIDECHENGYIN。

本文逻辑:

货币政策问题:美联储为何投降?

货币制度问题:高泡沫为何堆积?

货币理论问题:大危机为何爆发?

01

货币政策问题

美联储为何投降?

BBIN游戏官网WOMENXIANJIANGSHIJIANXIANBOHUIDAOLIANGGEXINGQIQIANDE3YUE3RI,MEILIANCHUXUANBUJINJIJIANGXI50GEJIDIAN,LIANBANGJIJINLILVXIADIAOZHI1%-1.25%。

MEILIANCHUZHUXIBAOWEIERZAISHENGMINGZHONG“ZHAILULE”1987NIANGELINSIPANHUIYING“HEISEXINGQIYI”DEJUBEN。

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1987NIAN2YUE,MEIRIDEDENGQIGUOCAIZHANGHEYANGXINGXINGZHANGZAIBALIDACHENGLELUFUGONGXIEYI,YIJIUZHENGZHIQIANDEGUANGCHANGXIEYI。ZHEICIXIEYIDEMUBIAOSHIBIMIANMEIYUANJIXUBIANZHI,BAOCHIGUOJIHUILVWENDING。

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BBIN游戏官网XINGQIYIDANGTIAN,GELINSIPANJIAZHUANGZHENDING,ANJIHUAFEIWANGDALASI;SIXIAQUEANPAITONGLIAOZAIMEILIANCHUSHISHIJIUSHIJIHUAJIDIAOPEIZIJIN。

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GELINSIPANZHEIYIJUDONG,CIJISHICHANGLIJIFANDAN,CHENGGONGSHOUFULE57%DESHIDI,FANGZHILEJINRONGBENGKUI。

SUIRAN1987NIANZHENGGE10YUEFEN,QUANQIUGUSHIXIADIEBUSHAO,NIUYUEXIADIE22.6%,LUNDUNXIADIE22.4%,XIANGGANGXIADIE45.8%,XINIXIADIE41.8%,DANSHIGELINSIPANSHISHIKUANSONGZHENGCE,CUSHIGUSHIZAI1988NIANDIYIJIDUBIANNISHIFANDANSHOUFUSHIDI;DIERJIDUMEIGUOJINGJIZENGZHANGGAODA5.4%。

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BBIN游戏官网1987NIANHEISEXINGQIYIHOUMEILIANCHUSHISHIKUANSONGZHENGCE,1988NIAN8YUEGELINSIPANJIAOTINGKUANSONG,KAISHISHISHIJINSUO。DANZHEILUNJINSUOZHIJIALE50GEJIDIAN。CIHOU,MEIYICIJIANGXIFUDUDOUYAODAYUJIAXIFUDU,RUCILILVCHENGBOLANGSHIXIAXING。

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1990NIANKUANSONGZHOUQIJIANG6GEDIAN,1994NIANJINSUOZHOUQIZHIJIA2GEDUODIAN;

BBIN游戏官网2000NIANKUANSONGZHOUQIJIANG4GEDIAN;2005NIANJINSUOZHOUQIJIAJIANGJIN4GEDIAN;

BBIN游戏官网2008NIANKUANSONGZHOUQIJIANG5GEDIAN;2015NIANJINSUOZHOUQIZHIJIA2.5GEDIAN;

BBIN游戏官网2019NIAN8YUEKAIQIJIANGXI,2020NIAN3YUEZHIJIEJIANGDAOLINGLILV。

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BBIN游戏官网ZHIHOU,GELINSIPANYOUYUKELINDUNYIQIZHUDAOFEICHULE《GELASI-SIDIGEERFA》,TUIDONGLEMEIGUOJINRONGHUNYE,CHEDISHIFANGLEJINRONGSHICHANG。

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BBIN游戏官网2008NIANJINRONGWEIJIBAOFAHOU,MEILIANCHUZHUXIBONANKEWEILEJIUSHIJIANGLILVJIANGDAOLING。

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BBIN游戏官网KEJIAN,HUOBIZHENGCEWENTISHIMEILIANCHUXIANRUBEIDONGDEZHIJIEYUANYIN。

02

货币制度问题

高泡沫为何堆积?

HUOBIZHENGCEDEWENTI,ZAIHUOBIZHIDUSHANG。

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WEISHENMENI?

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BBIN游戏官网DANSHI,CONGHUOBIBENZHIDEJIAODULAIKAN,SHIYELVHEJINRONGWENDING,BUYINGGAISHIHUOBIZHENGCEMUBIAO。SHIYELVSHIZHENGFUDEMUBIAO,JINRONGWENDINGSHIYIZHONGSHICHANGZHUANGTAIBUNENGZUOWEIHUOBIMUBIAO。

MEILIANCHUMUBIAOFANHUA,DAOZHIQIJINGCHANGBEILIANBANGZHENGFUDABIANCHE。HUOZHE,MEILIANCHUYULIANBANGZHENGFU“HEMOU”,GONGTONGZHUIQIUJIUYELV,GONGTONGCHUSHOUJIUSHI,CIJIJINRONGSHICHANG。

RUZHEICIJIUSHIXINGDONG,MEILIANCHUJIANGLILVJIANGZHILING,YEHENNANCIJIJINGJIZENGZHANG。YINGDUIYIQINGDUIJINGJIDECHONGJI,ZHUYAOKAOCAIZHENGGONGJU,BIRUDAGUIMOJIANMIANSHUI,FAFANGXIAOFEIQUAN,TIGONGMIANFEIYILIAOFUWUDENG。

BBIN游戏官网DANSHI,BAOWEIERDINGBUZHUYALI,BAZIDANDAGUANG。TELANGPUKAIXINDISHUO:“WEILAILIANGGEYUEDOUBUHUIZAISHUOBAOWEIERHUAIHUALE。”

微信图片_20200318192058

BBIN游戏官网TU:BUDUICHENGCAOZUOYUZHAIWUWEIJI,LAIYUAN:ZHIBENSHE

BBIN游戏官网MEILIANCHUJIANGJINRONGWENDING、ZHENGFUCHIZINARUZHENGCEKAOLIANG,DINGRANHUIBEIMEIGUOZHENGFUDABIANCHE,YICICIJIANGDILILV,YICICIWEICAIZHENGCHIZIRONGZI,CONGERTUIGAOGUOZHAIGUIMO,ZENGJIAGANGGANLV,XINGCHENGJUDADEHUOBIPAOMO。

BBIN游戏官网DANGRAN,RUOJIANGJINTIANHUOBIPAOMODEJIEGUO,WANQUANGUIJIUYUGELINSIPAN、BONANKE、BAOWEIERJIMEILIANCHU,QISHIYOUSHIGONGYUN。

GENBENSHANGDEWENTIHAIZAIXINYONGHUOBI(HUOBILILUN)SHANG。

03

货币理论问题

大危机为何爆发?

XINYONGHUOBI,YIZHIDOUSHIHENYOUZHENGYIDEYIZHONGHUOBIZHIDU。

1971NIANBULEIDUNSENLINTIXIBENGKUISHI,HENDUOJINGJIXUEJIADOUFANDUIXINYONGHUOBI,ZHICHIJINBENWEI。

BBIN游戏官网JINBENWEIDEHAOCHUSHI,TONGGUOGANGXINGDUIHUANYUESHUYANGXINGLANFAHUOBI。JINBENWEIHUOBIFANYINGLERENLEIDUIZISHENDEBUXINREN:HUOBIFAXINGYUQIJIAOJIFALVYUDAODELAIYUESHU,BURURANGDIXIADEHUANGJINLAIJUEDING。

BBIN游戏官网DANSHI,MEICIFAXIANDAXINGJINKUANG,DOUJIJINBENWEIHUOBIDAILAIBIANZHIFENGXIAN。GEGUOWEILEZHENGDUOHUANGJIN,HUXIANGZHANZHENG,DAMAOYIZHAN,YILINWEIHE,SHITUDUOCHUKOUSHAOJINKOUZHUANQUGENGDUOHUANGJIN。TONGSHI,JINBENWEIHUOBIWUFAYINGDUIDAGUIMODESHICHANGJIAOYI。

YUJINBENWEIHUOBI、SHANGPINHUOBIBUTONG,XINYONGHUOBISHIWANQUANYOURENLEIDEZHIHUICHUANGZAODEHUOBIZHIDU。DANSHI,JINGJIXUEJIASHOUSIMIYILAIDESHANGPINHUOBIYIBANDENGJIAWULILUNJILAODONGJIAZHILUNDEYINGXIANG,YIZHIMEINENGSHENRUHUOBIBENZHITANSUOHUOBILILUNJIXINYONGHUOBIZHIDU。

QISHINIANDAI,GEGUODOUHAIBUZHIDAOZENMEWANZHUANXINYONGHUOBI,RUHEFAXING,FAXINGDUOSHAOHUOBI,RUHEHUISHOU,RUHEWENDINGLILVHEHUILV,ZHEIXIEDOUSHIWENTI。

JINBENWEIHUOBI,FAXINGYIHUANGJINWEICHUBEI,HUOBIKEYUHUANGJINGUAGOU,KEDUIHUANHUANGJIN。ZHEIYANGKEYIYUESHUHUOBILANFA,YANGXINGYOUZERENWEICHIYUHUANGJINDEGUDINGBIJIA,CONGERWEICHIBIZHIWENDING。

XINYONGHUOBISHIBUKEDUIHUANDEHUOBI,YESHIWUMAOHUOBI,RUHEWEICHIBIZHIWENDINGSHIDAWENTI,ZHUYAOYALILAIZILIANGGEFANGMIAN,YISHIRUHEZHAODAOWENDINGDEZICHANCHUBEI,ERSHIRUHEYUESHUHUOBILANFA。

SHOUXIANKANXINYONGHUOBIYISHENMECHUBEIZICHANLAIFAXING。70NIANDAIHOU,MEILIANCHUHUANGJINLIUSHIYANZHONG,MEILIANCHUDEZICHANZHUJIANFASHENGLEBIANHUA,HUANGJINBILIJIANSHAO,GUOZHAIHEFANGDICHANDIYAZHENGQUANZENGJIA。RUJIN,MEILIANCHUZHUYAOTONGGUOGOUMAIGUOZHAIHEDICHANDIYAZHENGQUANLAIFAXINGMEIYUAN。

BBIN游戏官网QITAGUOJIANI?MEIYUANSHISHIJIESHANGDIYIDACHUBEIHUOBI,ZHONGGUO、RIBENDENGGUOYANGXINGDEZICHANCHUBEI,MEIYUANDEBIZHONGHENDA。HUANYANZHI,HENDUOGUOJIATONGGUOGOUMAIMEIYUANLAIFAXINGBENGUOHUOBI。

GUOZHAIYIWEIZHEGUOJIAXINYONG,TONGCHANGSHIYIZHONGWENDINGDEZICHAN。SUOYI,MEIYUANYIMEIGUOGUOZHAIWEICHUBEIZICHANFAXING,XIANGDANGYUYIGUOJIAXINYONGWEIDANBAO,GUCHENGZHIWEIXINYONGHUOBI。

RUGUOWENDINGDEGUOZHAIYUEDUO,MEILIANCHUKUOZHANGMEIYUANDENENGLIJIUYUEQIANG。SUOYI,CONGMEILIANCHUDEJIAODULAIKAN,TAQINGXIANGYUZHICHIMEIGUOGUOZHAIKUOZHANG。

DANSHI,GUOZHAIKUOZHANGKENENGDAOZHIJIAGEXIADIE,WEIXIEMEIYUANXINYONG,ZHEIGAIZENMEBAN?

BBIN游戏官网RUGUOGUOZHAISHOUYILVXIADIE,MEILIANCHUQINGXIANGYUXIADIAOLILV,SHIFANGGENGDUODEHUOBI,YIZHICHIGUOZHAIGOUMAI。JIDUANQINGKUANGXIA,MEILIANCHUKENENGZHIJIECONGSHICHANGZHONGGOUMAIGUOZHAI,YIWEICHIZICHANJIAGEDEWENDING。

BBIN游戏官网BIRU,2008NIANJINRONGWEIJISHIHEZHEICIJINRONGKONGHUANG,MEIGUOGUOZHAISHOUYILVXIAJIANGDAOJIDISHUIPING,MEILIANCHUKAIQILIANGHUAKUANSONG,DAGUIMOGOUMAIGUOZHAI。

BBIN游戏官网QITAGUOJIADEHUOBIYIMEIYUANZUOWEICHUBEIZICHANFAXING,XIANGDANGYUYIMEIGUODEGUOJIAXINYONGWEIDANBAO。ZHEIXIEGUOJIA,YEXIWANGMEIYUANHEMEIGUOGUOZHAIBAOCHIWENDING。

SUOYI,RIBEN、ZHONGGUODENGCHIYOUDAGUIMOMEIYUANWAIHUIDEGUOJIA,DOUHUIZHUDONGGOUMAIDAGUIMODEMEIGUOGUOZHAI,YIWEICHIMEIGUOGUOZHAIDEWENDING。

CONGZHONGWOMENKEYIKANCHU,MEIYUANYUGUOZHAIHUWEIDOUDI,MEILIANCHUYULIANBANGZHENGFUQISHISHI“HANGXIEYIQI”,WUFAZUODAOZHENZHENGDEDULI。

RUCI,MEILIANCHUJINGCHANGHUIBEILIANBANGZHENGFUBANGJIA,BIANHENNANKONGZHIHUOBISHULIANG。TONGSHI,HENDUOGUOJIADEYANGXINGJIHUOBIXINYONG,YEBEILIANBANGZHENGFUJIBANGJIALE。

ZHEILIDEWENTICHUZAINALI?

MEILIANCHUBUYINGGAIYIGUOZHAIWEICHUBEIZICHANMA?BUSHI,MEIGUOGUOZHAIQUESHISHIJIAGEZUIWEIWENDING、ZUIWEIANQUANDEZICHAN。

WENTIZAIYUGUOZHAIDEFAXINGMOSHI。GUOZHAIBIXUYIGUOJIACAIZHENGSHOURUWEIDANBAOFAXING,ERBUSHIYIHUOBIWEIDANBAO。

HUANYANZHI,WEIHUMEIYUANJIAGEWENDINGDEZEREN,ZAILIANBANGZHENGFUERBUSHIMEILIANCHU。RUGUOMEILIANCHUBUCHASHOU,LIANBANGZHENGFUYIBUGANLANFAGUOZHAI,ERZHINENGNULICUJINJINGJIFAZHAN,SHOUQUGENGDUODESHUISHOUCAINENGFAXINGGENGDUOGUOZHAI。

BBIN游戏官网RUCI,JINGJICHIXUFAZHAN,YOUQISHISHITIJINGJIQIANGJING,SHUISHOUZENGJIA,GUOZHAIGUIMOKUODATONGSHIJIAGEWENDING,MEILIANCHUYIGUOZHAIFAXINGMEIYUAN,YITONGZHANGLVWEIMUBIAO,MEIYUANXINYONGWENDING,JINYIBUZHICHIJINGJIFAZHAN。ZHEIJIUSHIQIANGSHITI、DIPAOMO、GAOXINYONGLIANGXINGXUNHUAN。

BBIN游戏官网FANGUOLAI,MEILIANCHUYIJINRONGWENDINGWEIMUBIAO,WEILEWEICHIMEIGUOGUOZHAISHOUYILVDEWENDINGERDAGUIMOCAIGOUGUOZHAI,XIANGSHICHANGSHIFANGDAGUIMODEMEIYUAN。

ZHANGCIYIWANG,DAOZHIHUOBIFANLAN、GUOZHAIPENGZHANG,ZUIZHONGXINGCHENGJINTIANZHEIZHONG“DILILV、DITONGZHANG、DIZENGZHANG、GAOHUOBI、GAOGANGGAN”DEBEIDONGJUMIAN。

(ZHEIBUFENKELVEGUO:ZHEIGEWENTIZAOZAIMIXIXIBIPAOMOZHONGJIUCHUXIANLE。)

BBIN游戏官网WOMENZHIDAO,YUEHAN·LAOSHIMIXIXIBIPAOMODEZHUDAOZHE。ZAIJINGJIXUELISHISHANG,KANDILONG、DUERGE、SIMI、MAXIEERDENGJINGJIXUEJIADOUCHAOFENGGUOYUEHAN·LAODEYUCHUN。

QISHI,YUEHAN·LUOSHIZUIZAODEXINYONGHUOBILILUNCHUANGZAOZHEHESHIJIANZHE。ZAOZAI1704NIAN,TAJIUZAI《LUNDICHANYINXING》ZHONGDONGXILEHUOBIDEBENZHI:“KEYONGYUJIAOYIWUPINHEZHIFUSHOUDUANDEHUOBIBUBIYOUQUEDINGDEJIAZHI”。

YUEHAN·LAOJIANGHUOBIZHISHIWEIYIZHONGJIAOYIMEIJIE。ZAITAKANLAI,HUANGJIN、BAIYIN、YINPIAO、HUIPIAO、GUPIAO,ZHIYAOJUBEIJIAOYIMEIJIEGONGNENG,DOUKEYISHIWEIHUOBI。

BBIN游戏官网YUEHAN·LAOZHUZHANGDEHUOBI,BUSHISHANGPINBENWEI、JINBENWEI,ERSHIXINYONGHUOBI。ZHIHOU,TAZAIGEGUOXUNQIUJIHUIQUFENGKUANGDISHIXIANTADEXIANGFA。

1716NIAN,CAIZHENGBINLINBENGKUIDEFAGUOQINGLAILEYUEHAN·LAO。WEILEBANGZHUFAWANGJIEJUEZHAIWUWEIJI,YUEHAN·LAOJIEGUANLEXIBUGONGSI,HUOQULELUYISIANNEIDEMAOYIQUAN。YUEHAN·LAOCAIYONGZHAIZHUANGUDEFANGSHI,RANGGUOZHAICHIYOUZHEDUIHUANXIBUGONGSIDEGUPIAO。

BBIN游戏官网ZHEIZHONGBANFAYIDINGCHENGDUSHANGJIANHUANLEFAWANGZHAIWUYALI。YUSHI,YUEHAN·LAOCHENGSHENGZHUIJI,SHITUYONGXIBUGONGSIBINGGOUDONGYINDUGONGSI、FEIZHOUGONGSIDENG,RANHOUYIQIHEBINGCHENGWEIMIXIXIBIGONGSI——LONGDUANZHENGGEFAGUODEHAIWAIMAOYI。

BBIN游戏官网DANSHI,BINGGOUZHEIXIEGONGSIXUYAODABIZIJIN。QIANCONGNALILAI?

YUEHAN·LAOTONGGUOHUANGJIAYINXINGFAXINGZHIBI,YONGZHIBIZHIJIEGOUMAIMIXIXIBIGONGSIDEGUFEN,JIGAIGONGSIRONGZI。ZHEILEISIYURIBENYANGXINGZHIJIEGOUMAIGUPIAO(ETF)FAXINGHUOBI。

HUANGJIAYINXINGFAXINGZHIBIZHICHIMIXIXIBIZUODAGUBEN,ZAIYONGGUFENZHIHUANLEGUOZHAI,BANGZHUGUOWANGJIEKUN。ZAIZHEIGEHUANJIEZHONG,SUOYOUDEYALIZAIZHIBISHANG。ZHIBIZAIDANGSHISHI“POTIANHUANG”DE,RUHERANGRENXIANGXINZHIBIBUBIANZHI?

MIXIXIBIGONGSISHOUWODALIANGBIANZHIDEGUOZHAI,HUANGJIAYINXINGGOUMAIMIXIXIBIGONGSIDEGUPIAO,XIANGDANGYUHUANGJIAYINXINGDECHUBEIZICHANBAOHANLEGUOZHAI。ZHEIYANGDEZHIBI,XINYONGCHENGDUHENDI。

YUSHI,YUEHAN·LAOCHENGLILEYIJIALAOSHIYINXING,ZHIBICHIYOUZHEKEYULAOSHIYINXINGDUIHUANYINBI。

TONGSHI,TAYOUXIANGLEYIGEBANFA,RANGMIXIXIBIGONGSIJIEGUAN“BAOSHUIGONGSI”。FAGUODEBAOSHUIGONGSIZHANGKONGZHEZHENGGEFAGUODEZHENGSHUIQUAN。YUEHAN·LAOSHITUYONGZHENGGEFAGUODESHUISHOUWEIMIXIXIBIGONGSIDEGUOZHAIHEGUPIAODOUDI,YEJIUSHIWEIHUANGJIAYINXINGFAXINGDEZHIBIDOUDI。

ZHEISHIYIGEBUCUODEJIHUA。DANSHI,GOUMAIBAOSHUIGONGSIJISUOYOUGUOZHAI,YOUXUYAODABIQIAN,QIANCONGNALILAI?

ZHEISHI,YUEHAN·LAOBUDEBUCHAOGAOMIXIXIBIDEGUPIAOYIHUODERONGZI。TAGUORANSHIYIGEYINGXIAOTIANCAI,1719NIAN12YUEMIXIXIBIGONGSIDEGUPIAOJIAGECONGBANNIANQIANDE500LIFUERKUAISUSHANGZHANGDAO18000LIFUER,SHIZHIDA62.4YILIFUER。

BBIN游戏官网HUANGJIAYINXINGYICIKUOZHANGHUOBI,CONG1719NIAN6YUEDE1.6YILIFUERZENGJIADAO12YUEDE10YILIFUER。

DANSHI,1720NIANGUAIDIANCHUXIANLE,DAOHUOSUOSHIKONGDIQINWANGLAZHESANLIANGMACHEDEZHIBIDAOLAOSHIYINXINGDUIHUANYINGBI。ZHEIYINFATOUZIZHEDUIZHIBIHEGUPIAODEBUXINREN。

WEILEWEICHIGUPIAOJIAGE,YUEHAN·LAOZAI1920NIANSHANGBANNIANYOUJIANGZHIBIFAXINGLIANGZENGJIALEYIBEIDUO。ZHEIFANERYINFAGUPIAOHEHUOBIDAFUDUBIANZHI。

1720NIANXIABANNIAN,FAGUOGUOWUHUIYIXUANBUBIZHIBIANZHI50%,GUPIAOBENGPAN,MIXIXIBIPAOMOBENGKUI。

YUEHAN·LAODEWENTICHUZAINALI?

BBIN游戏官网GUPIAOHUANGUOZHAI,ZHIBIMAIGUPIAO,CHAOGAOGUPIAOCHAOFAZHIBI,ZAIYONGZHIBIGOUMAISHUISHOUGONGSI,YONGSHUISHOUWEIZHIBIDOUDI。

BBIN游戏官网ZHEIYI“LIANHUANTAO”,ZUIZHIMINGDELOUDONGSHIMEIYOUYIGEZHUTIZHENZHENGCHUANGZAOZUGOUDEJIAZHI(JIUSHIYIWEISHEYOUJINGCHANGSHUODEWENTIDEGUANJIANSHICAIFU,ERBUSHIHUOBI),YIZHICHENGRUCIPANGDADEJINRONGZICHAN。ZHIYOUMIXIXIBIGONGSIZHUANDAOZUGOUDEQIAN,CAINENGZHICHIRUCIGAODESHIZHIJIDALIANGDESHUISHOU,CAINENGZHICHENGDAGUIMODEZHIBI。

RUJIN,MEIGUOGUOZHAIYUMEIYUANDE“LIANHUANTAO”YESHIRUCI。GUOZHAIWEIMEIYUANDOUDI,SHUISHOUWEIGUOZHAIDOUDI,ZHIYOUJINGJIFAZHAN,CAIYOUZUGOUDESHUISHOUZHICHENGMEIGUORUCIPANGDADEJINRONGZICHAN。

BBIN游戏官网YUEHAN·LAOZHIZAODEMIXIXIBIPAOMODUIHUOBILILUNDESHANGHAIHENDA,JINGJIXUEJIAYIZHIYICIWEIJIE,DUIXINYONGHUOBIPAICHI,GENGNANYISHENRUHUOBIBENZHI。

BBIN游戏官网ZAIQISHINIANDAIJINRUXINYONGHUOBISHIDAISHI,ZHIYOUFULIDEMANDENGSHAOSHUJINGJIXUEJIAZHICHIXINYONGHUOBI。1945NIAN,FULIDEMANZAIDEGUOYONGXIANGYANJIAYOUDELIZI,SHITAXIANGYUEHAN·LAOYIYANGLINGWUDAOLEHUOBIDEZHENDI——ZUOWEIJIAOYIMEIJIEDEJIAZHI,ERFEISHANGPINBENSHENDEJIAZHI。

BBIN游戏官网DANSHI,FULIDEMANMEIYOUSHENRULIJIEXINYONGHUOBIFAXINGDEZHIDU,ZHITONGGUOJIANDANDEKONGZHIHUOBISHULIANGLAIWENDINGBIZHI,MEIYOUMINGQUEYANGXINGCHUBEIZICHANDEXINYONGJICHU(GUOZHAI—SHUISHOU)。

BBIN游戏官网DAOLE90NIANDAI,GELINSIPANQINGYIDIPAOQILESHULIANGKONGZHI,JIANGGUOZHAIYUMEIYUANDEXINYONGKUNBANG,JIANGMEILIANCHUYULIANBANGZHENGFUDEZHIZEHUNXIAO。

2008NIANBONANKEJIUSHIHOU,HOUKAIENSIZHUYIHUOBILILUN——XIANDAIHUOBILILUNXINGQI,TAMENJIANGZHENGFUZHAIWUDENGTONGYUHUOBI,ZHICHIHUOBIKUANSONGZHENGCEJICAIZHENGCHIZIHUOBIHUARONGZI。

HUOXU,MEIGUOLINGYOUDASUAN:MEILIANCHUYIJINRONGWENDINGWEIMUBIAO,TUIDONGJINRONGHUNYE,FAXINGMEIYUANZUODAJINRONGZICHAN,XIANGSHIJIESHUCHUMEIYUAN,ZHUANQUGUOJIZIBENHONGLI。

XINYONGHUOBI“KANSHEIMEINEIMELAN”DEJINGZHENGLUOJI,ZHICHIMEIGUODEZHEIZHONGCELVELVSHIBUSHUANG。JISHI2008NIANBAOFAJINRONGWEIJI,MEIYUANJIGUOZHAIYIRANBUKEHANDONG,YINWEIMEIYUANHEGUOZHAIYIRANSHI“MEINEIMELAN”DEZICHAN。

BBIN游戏官网DANGRAN,ZHEIGEWENTIBINGBUZAIXINYONGHUOBISHANG。XINYONGHUOBI,SHIYIGEJIAOYIFEIYONGGENGDI、JUYOUJILIXINGDEZHIDU。DANSHI,TONGYANGBANSUIZHEGENGDADEFENGXIAN。

正如我在《》所说的:

“人类发明的这套经济制度,本身就是一个制度性泡沫非均衡,激励与风险并存,理性与泡沫并存,自由与危险并存。当前,信用货币及国债支撑的经济货币化,促使世界处于一个长期的巨大的理性泡沫非均衡之中。”

经济危机,根本上源自人类发明的经济制度,包括有限责任制、股票、债券、期货、期权、信用货币等。

为了应对风险,我们设计了层层合约,通过合约约束降低风险,转移风险。例如,商业银行给存款买保险,保险公司又给自己买保险,央行给保险公司和商业银行兜底。

但是,由于货币理论滞后导致信用制度存在缺陷,引发公地悲剧及资产泡沫风险。或许,唯有新一次科技革命,才能烫平这轮周期。


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